UAH > Math > Math Club > Luncheon Talk 9/29/2000

Multiple Strain Influenza Models with Immunity Loss


Thomas Park

Mathematical Sciences Department
University of Alabama in Huntsville

September 29, 2000

Influenza may have several strains and/or subtypes co-circulating in a community, which may cause serious public health problems and make the prevention and spread of the disease difficult. We seek to identify reliable modles to understand the concurrent epidemics.

We begin with a brief development of a prototypical ODE model--the SIR model. Then we include immunity loss to form the SIRS model. Then we couple several of the immunity loss models to form an n-strain model.

We discuss equilibrium states, threshold conditions, and numerical results.